Doctors are a step closer to accurately predicting the age at which a woman will hit the menopause.
A
12-year Iranian study of 266 women found it was possible to pinpoint
the age of menopause by measuring levels of a hormone called AMH.
If proven in further studies, it potentially means women could have more control over when to start a family.
It could be particularly useful for identifying women who may have an early menopause, experts said.
AMH controls the development of follicles in the ovaries from which eggs develop.
The idea of using the hormone to help predict fertility is not a new one.
Tests are already available to look at "ovarian reserve", which indicates if menopause is imminent.
But
this is the first time researchers have worked out a formula for
linking AMH levels in younger women with future age of menopause.
In
the study 266 women aged between 20 and 49 were monitored through blood
samples and physical examinations at three-yearly intervals over a
12-year period.
The researchers, who presented the results at the
European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology conference in
Rome, then worked out a mathematical model for estimating the age at
menopause from AMH levels in the blood.
For the 63 women who
reached menopause during the study there was consistent agreement
between their "predicted" age and actual age of menopause.
On
average, the difference between the predicted and actual age of
menopause was only a third of a year, with a maximum margin of error of
three to four years.
However only three of the women under the age of 45 hit the menopause during the study, so experts said they would like to see the formula tested in a much larger group to prove its accuracy.
'Insurance policy'
The
study leader, Dr Fahimeh Ramezani Tehrani, from the Shahid Beheshti
University of Medical Sciences in Tehran, Iran, said the results could
enable doctors to make a more realistic assessment of women's
reproductive status "many years before they reach menopause".
UK
doctors said using AMH as a guide to future fertility was proving
potentially very useful but warned women against relying on such tests
as an "insurance policy" encouraging them to put off having a family.
Stuart
Lavery, a consultant gynaecologist at Hammersmith Hospital in London
and spokesman for the British Fertility Society, said that the quality
of the partner's sperm and other medical complications such as scarred
tubes all contribute to overall fertility.
"The issue where we would have a concern is if people become too reassured by this."
Dr Dagan Wells, senior scientific the Nuffield Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology at the University of Oxford, said: "Given that women are tending to start
their families later and later, postponing having a child until careers
are established or until 'Mr Right' comes along, foreknowledge of the
length of their fertile lifespan should help them to plan ahead."
But
he said that fertility declines in the years leading up to menopause,
so more research is needed to work out if AMH levels can determine the
point at which fertility actually drops.
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